Tagged: global warming Toggle Comment Threads | Keyboard Shortcuts

  • SW Cali Commentary / Net Production 4:17 am on November 28, 2016 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , , , global warming, , hurricanes, nuclear news, , , ,   

    Intensity of hurricanes is increased by global warming — nuclear-news 

    Dahr Jamail | Record Heating of Earth’s Oceans Is Driving Uptick in Hurricanes http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/37877-record-heating-of-earth-s-oceans-is-driving-uptick-in-hurricanes Thursday, 06 October 2016 By Dahr Jamail, Truthout | Report As Hurricane Matthew impacts the East Coast of the US this week, it is important to consider how rising ocean temperatures are contributing to the intensification of storms worldwide. Earlier this year, a scientific study titled […]

    via Intensity of hurricanes is increased by global warming — nuclear-news

     
  • SW Cali Commentary / Net Production 11:52 pm on November 21, 2016 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , Glaciers, global warming, Greenland, Ice burgs, Ice melting, Iceburgs, , ,   

    Oh, darn. Study: Most meltwater in Greenland fjords likely comes from icebergs, not glaciers — Watts Up With That? 

     
  • SW Cali Commentary / Net Production 1:00 am on November 12, 2016 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: antarctic, , Earth, , , global warming, , overheating, , sea ice, ,   

    Climate: Sea ice at both poles way below average — Summit County Citizens Voice 

    Antarctic sea ice retreat could set stage for ice shelf collapses Staff ReportMonths of above-average temperatures in the Arctic slowed the growth of sea ice formation to a crawl during the second half of October, the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported in its latest monthly update.The ice scientists said that, starting Oct. 20, […]

    via Climate: Sea ice at both poles way below average — Summit County Citizens Voice

     
  • SW Cali Commentary / Net Production 4:58 am on October 12, 2016 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , global warming, heavier snowfall, , meteorological agency,   

    Japan BOM: Global Warming will cause Heavier Snowfall — Watts Up With That? 

    Guest essay by Eric Worrall The Japan Meteorological Agency thinks global warming will lead to heavier snowfall in Northern Japan. According to writer Susumu Yoshida of the Asahi Shimbun, a prominent Japanese national newspaper; Global warming will bring more heavy snow in northern Japan Logic would tell us that continuing global warming will lead to […]

    Global warming will bring more heavy snow in northern Japan

    Logic would tell us that continuing global warming will lead to less snowfall, but the opposite will be true in some areas of northern Japan, according to a meteorological simulation.

    By the end of this century, while the country as a whole will receive a smaller amount of snow, Hokkaido and inland areas of the Hokuriku region will experience more frequent heavy snowfalls, the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency announced Sept. 23.

    The reasoning behind the prediction is that larger amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere caused by higher temperatures will make it easier for belts of snow clouds to develop above the Sea of Japan when the air pressure pattern is typical of the winter.

    According to the results of the institution’s precise simulation, the Japanese archipelago will have lighter snowfall during the winter, if the mean annual temperature increases three degrees from the current level between 2080 and 2100.

    Read more: http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201610100004.html

    Tracking original source material is a bit tricky because I don’t read or write Japanese, but the following appears to be part of an official Japanese Meteorological Report – though I am not sure if it is the source material referenced by Yoshida.

    Snowfall in winter (Fig 6.1, Fig 6.2)

    Snowfall in winter (December – March) is projected to decrease under both scenarios A1B and B1, in most areas except Hokkaido. The projected decrease for scenario A1B is greater than that for B1.

    The projected increase in snowfall at high altitudes in Hokkaido for scenario A1B is greater than for the B1.

    Heavy snowfall in winter (Fig 7.1, Table 7.1, Table 7.2)

    The frequency of heavy snowfall is projected to increase at high altitudes in Hokkaido. The projected rate of increase for scenario A1B is greater than that for B1.

    In most areas except Hokkaido, the frequency of heavy snowfall is projected to decrease for scenario A1B more than that for B1.

    Read more: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/gwp7/html_e/summary.html

    All I can say is thank goodness we are not experiencing global cooling, otherwise we might have no snowfall at all.

     

    via Japan BOM: Global Warming will cause Heavier Snowfall — Watts Up With That?

     
  • SW Cali Commentary / Net Production 3:24 pm on November 2, 2015 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , erosion, global warming, land erosion, quartz, qz.com, , , shifting, , , , , ,   

    It is Difficult to measure Global Warming Erosion due to “Shifting” Weather Patterns 

    According to NASA, Antarctica is actually gaining ice.368c648c-546b-4ed2-b9c1-838a2afeb85b-2060x1236

    Antarctica is currently gaining more ice than it’s losing, according to a recent study by NASA.

     The surprising findings, detailed in the Journal of Glaciology, doesn’t deny that glaciers are melting at an increased rate as a result of global warming, but suggests current gains outweigh the losses in other areas. Using satellite data, researchers estimate the Antarctic ice sheet had a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice per year from 1992 to 2001. This net gain eventually slowed between 2003 and 2008 to 82 billion tons of ice per year.

    “We’re essentially in agreement with other studies that show an increase in ice discharge in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Thwaites and Pine Island region of West Antarctica,” said lead researcher Jay Zwally from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center “Our main disagreement is for East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica—there, we see an ice gain that exceeds the losses in the other areas.”

     The study challenges previous research, including the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2013 report (pdf), which attributed 0.27 millimeters per year of sea level rise to a melting Antarctica.

    But if Antarctica is not losing land ice overall, then where is this sea-level rise coming from? Researchers aren’t sure, suggesting there is another contribution to sea level rises that has yet to be accounted for.

    The findings show just how difficult it is to measure changes in Antarctica. Researchers analyzed variations in the surface height of the Antarctic ice sheet using radar instruments on two European Space Agency satellites from 1992 to 2001, and by laser sensors on a NASA satellite from 2003 to 2008. While other scientists had also observed gains in elevations in East Antarctica, they had wrongly attributed it to recent snowfall. Researchers used meteorological data dating back to 1979 to show the ice cores in the area had in fact been thickening.

    Antarctica may not be contributing to sea level rises, but researchers caution against celebrating as the current trend could reverse within a few decades. Courtesy of: Quartz. http://qz.com/538902

     
  • SW Cali Commentary / Net Production 3:16 am on September 22, 2015 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , , , el nino, , , flood warning, , global warming, , , , , , , , , , tsunami warning, ,   

    Severe El Niño events will lead to coastal flooding and erosion 

    Map courtesy NOAA

    The projected upsurge of severe El Niño and La Niña events will cause an increase in storm events leading to extreme coastal flooding and erosion in populated regions across the Pacific Ocean, according to a multi-agency study published Monday in Nature Geoscience.

    The impact of these storms is not presently included in most studies on future coastal vulnerability, which look primarily at sea level rise. New research data, from 48 beaches across three continents — including Hawaii — and five countries bordering the Pacific Ocean, suggest the predicted increase will exacerbate coastal erosion irrespective of sea level rise affecting the region.

    Researchers from 13 different institutions analyzed coastal data from across the Pacific Ocean basin from 1979 to 2012. The scientists sought to determine if patterns in coastal change could be connected to major climate cycles.

    Although previous studies have analyzed coastal impacts at local and regional levels, this is the first to pull together data from across the Pacific to determine basin-wide patterns. The research group determined all Pacific Ocean regions investigated were affected during either an El Niño or La Niña year.

    When the west coast of the U.S. mainland and Canada, Hawaii, and northern Japan felt the coastal impacts of El Niño, characterized by bigger waves, different wave direction, higher water levels and/or erosion, the opposite region in the Southern Hemisphere of New Zealand and Australia experienced “suppression,” such as smaller waves and less erosion.10881697_595527693881949_8814641042094097058_n

    The pattern then generally flips: during La Niña, the Southern Hemisphere experienced more severe conditions.

    The published paper, “Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation” is available online.

    Abstract: To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.

    Japan Tsunami: Victims remembered

    See more: via: http://www.nature.com

    References:

    1. Nicholls, R. J. et al. Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 161181 (2011).
    2. Hallegate, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R. J. & Corfee-Morlot, J. Future flood losses in major coastal cities. Nature Clim. Change 3, 802806 (2013).
    3. Young, I. R., Zieger, S. & Babanin, A. V. Global trends in wind speed and wave height.Science 332, 451455 (2011).
    4. Mantua, N. J., Hare, S. R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M. & Francis, R. C. A Pacific decadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 10691079 (1997).
    5. Wolter, K. The Southern Oscillation in surface circulation and climate over the tropical Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Indian Oceans as captured by cluster analysis. J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol. 26, 540558 (1987).
    6. Wolter, K. & Timlin, M. S. in Proc. 17th Clim. Diagnostics Work. 5257 (CIMMS and the School of Meteorology, Univ. of Oklahoma, 1993).
    7. Rogers, J. C. & van Loon, H. Spatial variability of sea level pressure and 500 mb height anomalies over the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Weath. Rev. 110, 13751392 (1982).
    8. Hemer, M. A., Church, J. A. & Hunter, J. R. Variability and trends in the directional wave climate of the Southern Hemisphere. Int. J. Climatol. 30, 475491 (2010).
    9. Wallace, J. M. & Gutzler, D. S. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere. Mon. Weath. Rev. 109, 784812 (1981).
    10. Kuriyama, Y., Banno, M. & Suzuki, T. Linkages among interannual variations of shoreline, wave and climate at Hasaki, Japan. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L06604 (2012).
    11. Storlazzi, C. D. & Griggs, G. B. Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the evolution of central California’s shoreline. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 112, 236249 (2000).
    12. Sallenger, A. H. et al. Sea-cliff erosion as a function of beach changes and extreme wave runup during the 1997–1998 El Niño. Mar. Geol. 187, 279297 (2002).
    13. Allan, J. C. & Komar, P. D. Climate controls on US West Coast erosion processes. J. Coast. Res. 22, 511529 (2006).
    14. Abyswirigunawardena, D. S. & Walker, I. J. Sea level responses to climate variability and change in northern British Columbia. Atmosphere 46, 277296 (2008).
    15. Barnard, P. L. et al. The impact of the 2009–10 El Niño Modoki on U.S. West Coast beaches. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L13604 (2011).
    16. Heathfield, D. K., Walker, I. J. & Atkinson, D. E. Erosive water level regime and climatic variability forcing of beach–dune systems on south-western Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Earth Surf. Land. 38, 751762 (2013).
    17. Smith, R. K. & Benson, A. P. Beach profile monitoring: How frequent is sufficient? J. Coast. Res. 34, 573579 (2001).
    18. Ranasinghe, R., McLoughlin, R., Short, A. & Symonds, G. The Southern Oscillation Index, wave climate, and beach rotation. Mar. Geol. 204, 273287 (2004).
    19. Harley, M. D., Turner, I. L., Short, A. D. & Ranasinghe, R. Interannual variability and controls of the Sydney wave climate. Int. J. Climatol. 30, 13221335 (2010).
    20. Thom, B. G. in Landform Evolution in Australia: Canberra (eds Davies, J. L. & Williams, M. A.) 197214 (Australian National University Press, 1978).
    21. Bryant, E. Regional sea level, Southern Oscillation and beach change, New South Wales, Australia. Nature 305, 213216 (1983).
    22. Clarke, D. J. & Eliot, I. G. Low-frequency variation in the seasonal intensity of coastal weather systems and sediment movement on the beachface of a sandy beach. Mar. Geol.79, 2339 (1988).
    23. Phinn, S. R. & Hastings, P. A. Southern Oscillation influences on the wave climate of south-eastern Australia. J. Coast. Res. 8, 579592 (1992).
    24. Dee, D. P. et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553597 (2010).
    25. Shimura, T., Mori, N. & Mase, H. Ocean waves and teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Clim. 26, 86548670 (2013).
    26. Tokinaga, H. & Xie, S.-P. Wave- and anemometer-based sea surface wind (WASWind) for climate change analysis. J. Clim. 24, 267285 (2011).
    27. Mori, N., Yasuda, T., Mase, H., Tom, T. & Oku, Y. Projections of extreme wave climate change under global warming. Hydrol. Res. Lett. 4, 1519 (2010).
    28. Dobrynin, M., Murawsky, J. & Yang, S. Evolution of the global wind wave climate in CMIP5 experiments. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L18606 (2012).
    29. Hemer, M. A., Fan, Y., Mori, N., Semedo, A. & Wang, X. L. Projected changes in wave climate from a multi-model ensemble. Nature Clim. Change 3, 471476 (2013).
    30. Semedo, A. et al. Projection of global wave climate change toward the end of the twenty-first century. J. Clim. 26, 82698288 (2013).
    31. Previdi, M. & Liepert, B. G. Annular modes of Hadley cell expansion under global warming.Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L22701 (2007).
    32. Arblaster, J. M., Meehl, G. A. & Karoly, D. J. Future climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. Competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38,L02701 (2011).
    33. Collins, M. et al. The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño.Nature Geosci. 3, 391397 (2010).
    34. Stevenson, S. L. Significant changes to ENSO strength and impacts in the twenty-first century: Results from CMIP5. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L17703 (2012).
    35. Cai, W. et al. Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming.Nature Clim. Change 4, 111116 (2014).
    36. WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5—CMIP5. CLIVAR Exchanges 16(Special issue), 1–52 (2011)
    37. Cai, W. et al. Increased frequency of La Niña events under greenhouse warming. Nature Clim. Change 5, 132137 (2015).
    38. L’Heureux, M. L., Lee, S. & Lyon, B. Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker Circulation across the tropical Pacific. Nature Clim. Change 3, 571576 (2013).
    39. Erikson, L. H., Hegermiller, C. A., Barnard, P. L., Ruggiero, P. & van Ormondt, M. Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios. Ocean Model. (2015).
    40. Harley, M. D., Barnard, P. L. & Turner, I. L. Coastal Sediments 2015: The Proceedings of the Coastal Sediments 2015 (World Scientific, 2015).
     
  • SW Cali Commentary / Net Production 6:43 pm on August 29, 2015 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , global warming, how fast are we burning up?, How much time do we have?, , , , ,   

    How fast is the Earth warming? 

    wpid-wp-1422257248664.gif

    Pic via: Sier’s Poetry

    How fast is the Earth warming?  via: Sheldon Walker / Guest Blogger presents a method for calculating the Earth’s rate of warming, using the existing global temperature series:.

    Graph 1

    Pics courtesy of: Watts Up W/That

    It can be difficult to work out the Earth’s rate of warming. There are large variations in temperature from month to month, and different rates can be calculated depending upon the time interval and the end points chosen. A reasonable estimate can be made for long time intervals (100 years for example), but it would be useful if we could calculate the rate of warming for medium or short intervals. This would allow us to determine whether the rate of warming was increasing, decreasing, or staying the same.

    The first step in calculating the Earth’s rate of warming is to reduce the large month to month variation in temperature, being careful not to lose any key information. The central moving average (CMA) is a mathematical method that will achieve this. It is important to choose an averaging interval that will meet the objectives. Calculating the average over 121 months (the month being calculated, plus 60 months on either side), gives a good reduction in the variation from month to month, without the loss of any important detail.

    Graph 1 shows the GISTEMP temperature series. The blue line shows the raw temperature anomaly, and the green line shows the 121 month central moving average. The central moving average curve has little month to month variation, but clearly shows the medium and long term temperature trend.

    The second step in calculating the Earth’s rate of warming is to determine the slope of the central moving average curve, for each month on the time axis. The central moving slope (CMS) is a mathematical method that will achieve this. This is similar to the central moving average, but instead of calculating an average for the points in the interval, a linear regression is done between the points in the interval and the time axis (the x-axis). This gives the slope of the central moving average curve, which is a temperature change per time interval, or rate of warming. In order to avoid dealing with small numbers, all rates of warming in this article will be given in °C per century.

    It is important to choose the correct time interval to calculate the slope over. This should make the calculated slope responsive to real changes in the slope of the CMA curve, but not excessively responsive. Calculating the slope over 121 months (the month being calculated plus 60 months on either side), gives a slope with a good degree of sensitivity.

    Graph 2 shows the rate of warming curve for the GISTEMP temperature series. The blue line is the 121 month central moving slope (CMS), calculated for the central moving average curve. The y-axis shows the rate of warming in °C per century, and the x-axis shows the year. When the rate of warming curve is in the lower part of the graph ( colored light blue), then it shows cooling (the rate of warming is below zero). When the rate of warming curve is in the upper part of the graph ( colored light orange), then it shows warming (the rate of warming is above zero).

    Graph 2 Graph 2

    The curve shows 2 major periods of cooling since 1880. Each lasted approximately a decade (1900 to 1910, and 1942 to 1952), and reached cooling rates of about -2.0 °C per century. There is a large interval of continuous warming from 1910 to 1942 (about 32 years). This reached a maximum rate of warming of about +2.8 °C per century around 1937. 1937 is the year with the highest rate of warming since the start of the GISTEMP series in 1880 (more on that later).

    There is another large interval of continuous warming from about 1967 to the present day (about 48 years). This interval has 2 peaks at about 1980 and 1998, where the rates of warming were just under +2.4 °C per century. The rate of warming has been falling steadily since the last peak in 1998. In 2015, the rate of warming is between +0.5 and +0.8 °C per century, which is about 30% of the rate in 1998. (Note that all of these rates of warming were calculated AFTER the so‑called “Pause-busting” adjustments were made. More on that later.)

    It is important to check that the GISTEMP rate of warming curve is consistent with the curves from the other temperature series (including the satellite series).

    Graph 3 shows the rate of warming curves for GISTEMP, NOAA, UAH, and RSS. (Note that the satellite temperature series did not exist before 1979.)

    Graph 3Graph 3

    All of the rate of warming curves show good agreement with each other. Peaks and troughs line up, and the numerical values for the rates of warming are similar. Both of the satellite series appear to have a larger change in the rate of warming when compared to the surface series, but both satellite series are in good agreement with each other.

    Some points about this method:

    1) There is no cherry-picking of start and end times with this method. The entire temperature series is used.

    2) The rate of warming curves from different series can be directly compared with each other, no adjustment is needed for the different baseline periods. This is because the rate of warming is based on the change in temperature with time, which is the same regardless of the baseline period.

    3) This method can be performed by anybody with a moderate level of skill using a spreadsheet. It only requires the ability to calculate averages, and perform linear regressions.

    4) The first and last 5 years of each rate of warming curve has more uncertainty than the rest of the curve. This is due to the lack of data beyond the ends of the curve. It is important to realise that the last 5 years of the curve may change when future temperatures are added.

    There is a lot that could be said about these curves. One topic that is “hot” at the moment, is the “Pause” or “Hiatus”.

    The rate of warming curves for all 4 major temperature series show that there has been a significant drop in the rate of warming over the last 17 years. In 1998 the rate of warming was between +2.0 and +2.5 °C per century. Now, in 2015, it is between +0.5 and +0.8 °C per century. The rate now is only about 30% of what it was in 1998. Note that these rates of warming were calculated AFTER the so-called “Pause-busting” adjustments were made.

    I was originally using the GISTEMP temperature series ending with May 2015, when I was developing the method described here. When I downloaded the series ending with June 2015 and graphed it, I thought that there must be something wrong with my computer program, because the rate of warming curve had changed so dramatically. I eventually traced the “problem” back to the data, and then I read that GISTEMP had adopted the “Pause-busting” adjustments that NOAA had devised.

    Graph 4 shows the effect on the rate of warming curve, of the GISTEMP “Pause-busting” adjustments. The blue line shows the rates from the May 2015 data, and the red line shows the rates from the June 2015 data.

    Graph 4Graph 4

    One of the strange things about the GISTEMP “Pause-busting” adjustments, is that the year with the highest rate of warming (since 1880) has changed. It used to be around 1998, with a warming rate of about +2.4 °C per century. After the adjustments, it moved to around 1937 (that’s right, 1937, back when the CO2 level was only about 300 ppm), with a warming rate of about +2.8 °C per century.

    If you look at the NOAA series, they already had 1937 as the year with the highest rate of warming, so GISTEMP must have picked it up from NOAA when they switched to the new NCEI ERSST.v4 sea surface temperature reconstruction.

    So, the next time that you hear somebody claiming that Global Warming is accelerating, show them a graph of the rate of warming. Some climate scientists seem to enjoy telling us that things are worse than predicted. Here is a chance to cheer them up with some good news. Somehow I don’t think that they will want to hear it.

    About these ads

     
  • SW Cali Commentary / Net Production 1:02 pm on July 7, 2015 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: cbs seattle, , global warming, hiker dead, ice cave collapse, , Seattle Washington, U.S.   

    Ice Cave Collapse Kills Hiker 

    VERLOT, Wash. (AP) — Ice caves popular with hikers northeast of Seattle partially collapsed, killing one person and leaving at least four other injured, officials said.

    Monday’s collapse came after authorities warned that the caves were especially dangerous because of warming temperatures.

    The person who died remained buried under the debris at the Big Four Ice Caves east of Verlot, Snohomish County sheriff’s spokeswoman Shari Ireton said late Monday night. The recovery effort was suspended at nightfall.

    All victims were believed accounted for, Ireton said.

    Three of the injured, including a 25-year-old man in critical condition, were airlifted to a Seattle trauma center. They included a seriously injured 35-year-old man and a 35-year-old woman in satisfactory condition, hospital spokeswoman Susan Gregg said. Their injuries included cuts and leg and pelvis fractures.

    A fourth person, a juvenile girl with minor injuries, was sent to an Everett, Washington, hospital, Ireton said. Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett also expected a second patient, spokeswoman Diane Torrance said late Monday night.

    The ice caves have been closed until further notice.

    The first call to emergency services came in about 5:38 p.m. Monday and the collapse probably happened about 45 minutes earlier, Ireton said. There was no cell phone service at the remote cave site.

    The U.S. Forest Service warned hikers in May that the ice caves were in their “most dangerous state” due to unseasonably warm weather. The caves about 70 miles northeast of Seattle are a popular hiking destination. Temperatures in the area Monday reportedly were in the 80s.

    Multiple warning signs have been put up in the past year to indicate the danger, Tracy O’Toole, a spokeswoman for the Mount Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest, told the Daily Herald of Everett.

    On Sunday, a hiker filmed a section of the caves tumbling down. Several tourists were inside a cave during that collapse, but there were no reported injuries.

    The caves are formed by avalanches that cascade down from nearby Big Four Mountain during winter and spring. Most years, one or more caves form as the ice melts.

    In July 2010, an 11-year-old girl was killed near the caves by a bouncing chunk of ice. She never even went inside the caves.

    Chloe Jakubowski, 18, told The Seattle Times that she and three friends drove about 15 miles to a pay phone to alert emergency crews to the injuries.

    “Everybody there, we grabbed everybody out and helped as best we could,” she said.

    Jakubowski told The Times she and a handful of others were in the cave when she heard a loud crack, then ice and debris cascaded down. She said she covered her head with her arms and crouched behind a giant rock of ice.

    When she stood up, a woman next to her lay unconscious. Others nearby had cuts and broken bones.

    “It was extremely gruesome, honestly,” said Jakubowski, who suffered scratches and other minor injuries. She said she saw the warning signs outside but went in anyway, adding she didn’t see anything that seemed to point toward a collapse, and others already were in the cave.

    Copyright 2015 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

    CBS Seattle

    VERLOT, Wash. (AP) — Ice caves popular with hikers northeast of Seattle partially collapsed, killing one person and leaving at least four other injured, officials said.

    Monday’s collapse came after authorities warned that the caves were especially dangerous because of warming temperatures.

    The person who died remained buried under the debris at the Big Four Ice Caves east of Verlot, Snohomish County sheriff’s spokeswoman Shari Ireton said late Monday night. The recovery effort was suspended at nightfall.

    All victims were believed accounted for, Ireton said.

    Three of the injured, including a 25-year-old man in critical condition, were airlifted to a Seattle trauma center. They included a seriously injured 35-year-old man and a 35-year-old woman in satisfactory condition, hospital spokeswoman Susan Gregg said. Their injuries included cuts and leg and pelvis fractures.

    A fourth person, a juvenile girl with minor injuries, was sent to an Everett, Washington, hospital, Ireton said. Providence…

    View original post 382 more words

     
  • SW Cali Commentary / Net Production 12:57 pm on June 22, 2015 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , , , ecology today, , , , global warming, , , he weeps, living the dream, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,   

    I don’t know if you’re hurting t-day.
    E’en so, His love can light the way.
    We’re each on our own unique pathway.

    Some are so broken they’ve no will to stay.
    Don’t highlight the faults of others you see.
    They have their own reasons for defeat.

    Just allow Him to, help, guide – strengthen you.
    You’ll find He’ll restore and mend too.
    His love and light is for receiving my friend. 

    We’re all just empty vessels He longs to fill.————————————————————

    Child on Oceanside:

    Here is a lad whose cast in pales.

    His eyes breath the ocean breeze.

    The whim and the wave tailgates.

    ———–

    The depth of the sea emeralds he.

    He takes steps to dive in just yet.

    Withal, his weak limbs only float.

    ———-

    Song’s of seagulls speak his cord.

    As he fingers moment to moment.

    Day to day footprints lye in sand.

    He Weeps……

     
  • SW Cali Commentary / Net Production 8:51 pm on May 23, 2015 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: anarctic, , , enviromment, global warming, , , ,   

    Climate: Is this the Antarctic tipping point? 

    dfsg

    Staff Report

    FRISCO — Along with studies showing dramatic changes in individual ice shelves in Antarctica, new research shows widespread changes in the region since 2009. Up until then, the Southern Antarctic Peninsula showed no signs of change.

    But suddenly, multiple glaciers along a vast coastal expanse, measuring some 750km in length, suddenly started to shed ice into the ocean at a nearly constant rate of 60 cubic kilometers, or about 55 trillion liters of water, each year. This makes the region the second largest contributor to sea level rise in Antarctica and the ice loss shows no sign of waning.

    “The fact that so many glaciers in such a large region suddenly started to lose ice came as a surprise to us,” said Dr. Bert Wouters, a Marie Curie Fellow at the University of Bristol, who lead the study. “It shows a very fast response of the ice sheet: in just a few years the dynamic regime completely shifted.”

    The research, published in Science, is based on measurements made by a suite of satellites, including CryoSat-2, which can measure the elevation of the ice sheet with pinpoint accuracy using radar pulses.

    By analyzing roughly 5 years of the data, the researchers found that the ice surface of some of the glaciers is currently going down by as much as 4m each year.

    The ice loss in the region is so large that it causes small changes in the gravity field of the Earth, which can be detected by another satellite mission, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE).

    “To date, the glaciers added roughly 300 cubic km of water to the ocean. That’s the equivalent of the volume of nearly 350,000 Empire State Buildings combined,” Wouters said.

    Data from an Antarctic climate model shows that the sudden change cannot be explained by changes in snowfall or air temperature. Instead, the team attributes the rapid ice loss to warming oceans.

    Many of the glaciers in the region feed into ice shelves that float on the surface of the ocean. They act as a buttress to the ice resting on bedrock inland, slowing down the flow of the glaciers into the ocean.

    The westerly winds that encircle Antarctica have strengthened in recent decades, in response to climate warming and ozone depletion. The stronger winds push warm waters from the Southern Ocean poleward, where they eat away at the glaciers and floating ice shelves from below.

    The floating ice shelves in the region have lost almost one-fifth of their thickness in the last two decades, offering less resistance to the land-based glaciers. According to the researchers, a key concern is that much of the ice of the Southern Antarctic Peninsula is grounded on bedrock below sea level, which gets deeper inland. This means that even if the glaciers retreat, the warm water will chase them inland and melt them even more.

    “It appears that sometime around 2009, the ice shelf thinning and the subsurface melting of the glaciers passed a critical threshold which triggered the sudden ice loss,” Wouters said. “However, compared to other regions in Antarctica, the Southern Peninsula is rather understudied, exactly because it did not show any changes in the past, ironically.

    “To pinpoint the cause of the changes, more data need to be collected. A detailed knowledge of the geometry of the local ice shelves, the ocean floor topography, ice sheet thickness and glacier flow speeds are crucial to tell how much longer the thinning will continue.”

    Summit County Citizens Voice

    Study shows widespread, simultaneous ice shelf melting

    dfsg Satellite data shows sudden shift in ice shelf dynamics along the southern Antarctic Peninsula. @berwyn photo.

    Staff Report

    FRISCO — Along with studies showing dramatic changes in individual ice shelves in Antarctica, new research shows widespread changes in the region since 2009. Up until then, the Southern Antarctic Peninsula showed no signs of change.

    But suddenly, multiple glaciers along a vast coastal expanse, measuring some 750km in length, suddenly started to shed ice into the ocean at a nearly constant rate of 60 cubic kilometers, or about 55 trillion liters of water, each year. This makes the region the second largest contributor to sea level rise in Antarctica and the ice loss shows no sign of waning.

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  • SW Cali Commentary / Net Production 5:11 pm on January 22, 2015 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: doomsday, end of humanity, , global warming, logical sequence of events, natural solarsystem effects, planetary shifts are inevitible, time is limited   

    Scientists believe we’re the closest to the end of humanity since the Cold War 

     
  • SW Cali Commentary / Net Production 2:37 pm on September 3, 2014 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , , future, global warming, , sweden   

    Global warming is about to turn Sweden’s highest mountain into its second highest 

     
  • SW Cali Commentary / Net Production 2:40 pm on August 23, 2014 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , eruption, global warming, ,   

    Scientists watch for signs of eruption as earthquakes surge around Iceland volcano 

    Featured Image

    Global News

    WATCH ABOVE: Authorities in Iceland are warning the airline industry about a possible volcanic eruption that could send ash spewing into the sky – and into the path of planes. CBS’ Alphonso Van Marsh reports from London.

    REYKJAVIK, Iceland – Iceland’s Meteorological Office is reporting a surge in seismic activity at the restless Bardarbunga volcano, but sees no evidence yet of any eruptions.

    Thousands of small earthquakes have rattled the volcano deep beneath the Vatnajokull glacier over the past week. Activity increased Saturday following a lull.

    Met Office vulcanologist Melissa Pfeffer says scientists will fly over the glacier Saturday to look for changes on the surface.

    READ MORE: Iceland volcano continues to rumble, still threat of eruption

    Iceland is keeping its aviation alert at “orange,” the second-highest level, amid what the Met calls “heightened levels of unrest.”

    A 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajokul volcano caused international aviation chaos, with…

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  • SW Cali Commentary / Net Production 3:39 pm on August 20, 2014 Permalink | Reply
    Tags: , global warming   

    Global warming – Tell me about it 

    Internationally Unrelated

    Global_Warming_by_audunellernoWhat is global warming? What is it doing to our planet? Are we really responsible for global warming?

    I’ve had this conversation many times with friends, colleagues, family and yet, answers don’t cease to surprise me. According to wikipedia, Global warming is the unequivocal and continuing rise in the average temperature of Earth’s climate system. This causes several types of consequences such as temperature changes, extreme weather, melting of ice, decrease of water resources and even climate refugees (which I will talk about in another post someday…). The majority of people agrees with this definition.

    So, what are the causes? Are we to be blamed? Well, it is here that opinions get divided.

    Some of the people I’ve spoken to say that this is not due to human action. They say that the earth has had many phases in its cycle, such as ice age and others, and this is just another phase. Even…

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