A preview of the 2015 Central Pacific Hurricane Season

The 2015 Central Pacific Hurricane Season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

There is a good relation of El Nino years to increased hurricane activity.

The average number of tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes is about four to five per year.

But when you look at El Nino years, in some cases, the number of storms has doubled. For example:

  • 1982: 10 with a direct hit from Hurricane IwaFeatured Image
  • 1992: 11 with a direct hit from Hurricane Iniki

We’ve gone through seasons with a high number of storms and no direct hits, such as 11 in 1994 and seven in 2009.

Then last year, which was a weak El Nino year, there were five storm systems with Tropical Storm Iselle hitting the southern tip of the Big Island.

El Nino causes warmer temperatures in the Pacific northern hemisphere and warm water makes storms spawn and survive.

Even last year with a weak El Nino, 22 systems were born in the East Pacific, the fourth highest on record.

According to the Climate Prediction Center, there is a 90-percent chance that El Nino will continue through this summer and an 80-percent chance through next year.

It won’t mean that we will get a direct hit, only that there is a higher chance of tropical cyclone formation for this hurricane season.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Forecast will be released May 26.

 

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